Predicting Risk Areas of Classical Scrapie in China Based on Environmental Suitability

Classical scrapie is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that attacks the central nervous system of sheep and goats. Since its discovery in 18th century, disease has caused enormous economic losses public health impacts continental Europe. In late 20th classical began to spread places, such as Asia Americas, becoming global concern. this study, based on prion occurrence records high-resolution environmental layers, risk assessment China was performed using maximum entropy model. The model achieved an area under curve value 0.906 (95% confidence interval, 0.0883–0.0929). Sheep distribution density, road goat minimum temperature coldest month, port precipitation driest quarter were identified important factors affecting scrapie. map showed potential high-risk areas mainly located Northeast China, North Northwest China. This study can provide valuable reference for prevention According variables scrapie, implementing monitoring early warning measures these recommended reduce possibility transmission.